agoodwinsmith: (Default)
This is a copy of a response I made to another Dreamwidther's post.

So. I am not convinced that whaling away on the axle of the Canadian economy with the hammer of bank interest rates is the best way to influence global inflation. But, I don't know enough. So, I wanted to read what Tiff Macklem[1] (Governor of the Bank of Canada) has written about it, to see whether I think he knows his stuff or just knows how to use a hammer.

He has published zilch. Although he is the Dean of the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, he has no publications with the University of Toronto's press. Although he is an Alumnus of Queens University (where they are delighted to note that 3 of the last 4 governors of the Bank of Canada are Alumni of Queens) he has published nothing at McGill-Queens University Press. Chasing down articles he has written is futile because, enticing as the google leader might be, it usually turns out to be a journalist synopsizing yet another press conference. When I tried to find anything he might have published elsewhere by searching Indigo - it brought up works by Tsuyoshi Fujitaka.

So. That leaves us with two meagre sources:
The full text of his announcement speech:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/07/opening-statement-2023-07-12/
and the Governor's Foreword of the Bank of Canada's Annual Report 2022
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/annual-reports-quarterly-financial-reports/annual-report-2022/
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/annual-reports-quarterly-financial-reports/annual-report-2022/governors-foreword/

His biggest moan seems to be that people keep dipping into their savings to continue to afford housing.

And I just want to smack him with a big whack-a-mole sponge.

Every time interest rates go up, the cost of housing goes up either through increased mortgage payments, or increased rent payments to landlords with increased mortgage payments. Duh. If people *don't* keep dipping into their savings (or lines of credit, or credit cards, or whatever), then they are out on the street. Do we measure how much of a percentage of the population is currently address-free? Is there a percentage goal where enough people are homeless that we can stop fooling with the interest rates?

After reading what meagre writing there is, I am convinced the only reason the Bank of Canada toys with the interest rates is because that is the only tool they have. They have no other mechanism for sticking a slat into the spokes of the economic bicycle.

A big spitty raspberry to people who think they can mow the lawn by trimming their bangs in the bathroom.

[1] - and yes, it's Tiffany (my other choice was Plaintiff[2], ahha), Richard Tiffany Macklem
[2] - I had to look it up: a person who brings a case against another in a court of law
agoodwinsmith: (Default)
Religious change preceded economic change in the 20th century:
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/7/eaar8680

They reviewed a broad selection of countries over a 100 year period of the 20th C, and they say: "... tolerance for individual rights predicted 20th century economic growth even better than secularization."

Secularization precedes economic development, and so it isn't increased prosperity that causes reduced religious adherence.

Increased regard for individual rights precedes economic prosperity.

I found this link through Andrew Ducker's post:
https://andrewducker.dreamwidth.org/3652848.html

I've put a modified version of my comment from his post here, so that I can find it again for further thought.
agoodwinsmith: (Default)
This article, courtesy of Eric Jarvis on FB, discusses the current collapse of the nation state, due to its inability to control and tax money flow, amongst other reasons:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/apr/05/demise-of-the-nation-state-rana-dasgupta?CMP=share_btn_fb

I have just finished reading it, and digestion is necessary, but the sooner other people read it, the better.

One of the take away quotes for me is this:

"Deregulating human movement is an essential corollary of the deregulation of capital: it is unjust to preserve the freedom to move capital out of a place and simultaneously forbid people from following."

On the one hand "just" is a concept currently underpinned by the authority of the state (it used to be kings and priests, but now it is judges certified by the state), so if the power of the state is failing, expecting justice yet is not realistic.

On another hand - where does this superstructure of global regulation envisioned by Dasgupta leave the low-caste person (me and my family & friends) in terms of coping with the changing rules of the game? There are rumours that Trudeau is considering a form of Emergency Measures Act to facilitate the building of the Kinder Morgan pipeline. This would be *insanely* disruptive to Canadian politics, since, while the other provinces might be happy to feast on the carcass of BC, they would also then be watching their backs and resisting even the teeny-tiniest infringement of Federal over Provincial. If there was a superstructure of regulation over such jurisdictional matters - who would win? The serfs belonging to a pretty figure head in charge of a defunct and penniless system, or the multinational corporation? Ha.

And, on another nother hand - this analysis could also herald the fall of the economic system that underpins both money as we know it and the stock market as we know it. It could fail, and so much for pensions - or guaranteed basic income - ask Venezuela. "During the year 2016, for example, consumer prices rose 800%, the economy contracted by 18.6%,[8] and hunger escalated to the point that the "Venezuela's Living Conditions Survey" (ENCOVI) found nearly 75 percent of the population had lost an average of at least 8.7 kg (19.4 lb) in weight due to a lack of proper nutrition." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela_(2012%E2%80%93present)

And one may think that if the stock market goes, so does all the wealth of the powerful. But I suspect that just as there are off-shore bank accounts, there is probably an off-shore stock market, too. If we already have a dark net, we probably have a dark finance system.

So.

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